The Rise of the Adult Amateur

Despite the recent flurry of anecdotal evidence (we’ve all seen the discussions on the Chronicle forums as well as the letters to both USDF Connections and Dressage Today) that might lead an outside observer to think that Adult Amateurs have been leaving the sport in droves, the data seems to show something different.  The overall Adult Amateur participation between 2008 – 2012 (as measured in # of rides at USEF-recognized shows) has stayed roughly the same (between 34-35k per year).  However, with the decline in overall participation discussed in parts 1 & 2, the % of rides ridden by Adult Amateurs has continued to steadily increase (from 35% in 2008 up to 46% in 2012) as shown below:

Amateur participation in recognized shows as a % of overall Adult participation has risen steadily from around 35% in 2008 to 46% last year.

The data shows that the downward trend observed in Dressage participation was driven almost completely by an exodus of Open riders from the recognized show ring.  As cited above, the Adult Amateur participation between 2008 and 2012 held steady at around 35,000 rides per year.  During this same time, the participation by Open riders plummeted by over 22,000 rides as illustrated below.

During 2008-2012, participation of Adult Amateurs rose slightly, while professional rider participation fell dramatically during the same period.

Which Pros are Taking a Break?

Based on the data then, it appears that over the last 4 years a significant and increasing number of Open riders are choosing to school their students from outside the rails of the warm-up arena rather than pulling on the white breeches themselves.  So one of the first questions to be asked is who exactly is leaving?  If we segment the downward trend we find that this exodus originated almost completely from the lower levels.

While the Show activity of Dressage professionals (Open riders) could be the subject of several lengthy blog posts, it is useful to review the typical show profile for Open riders in order to understand their role in the recent decline in overall participation.   In 2008, there were 64,206 Open tests scored at USEF recognized Dressage Shows.  Of those, over 42K were ridden at Training, First and Second Level (what we are calling “Beginner”).  This means that 66% or 2/3 of all of the tests ridden by Open riders were Beginner level rides.

Nearly 2/3 of all Open rides in 2008 were Beginner Level rides.

While we expect to dig into these numbers a bit more in future posts and analyses, this breakdown of Open tests is important to have as background when we look at the declining trends.  As we looked at this trend in more detail, what we found was that the VAST majority of the drop-off in Open participation (which itself accounts for most of the observed drop in overall participation) was due to a significant drop in the number of tests ridden at the lower levels.

A drop off in Beginner Level (Training, First & Second level) tests by Open riders accounts for most of the decline in Open participation.  The drop in Beginner level rides accounts for over 20K of the 22K total drop for Open riders (88% of the change).  Beginner level Open rider participation dropped so significantly between 2008 – 2012 that by the end of that period, there were more Adult Amateur riders in the lower levels than Open riders.

As can be seen above, while Open riders did see a decline in the upper levels as well, it is not nearly as pronounced as in the lower levels.  In addition, the overall participation of Adult Amateur riders held steady or slightly increased at the upper levels.

Summary

As detailed in Parts 1 & 2 of this series, there was a drop-off in overall dressage participation from 2008 – 2012.  Despite the conventional wisdom that Adult Amateurs have been leaving the sport en masse due to the struggling economy and showing expenses, over the last 4 years overall Adult Amateur participation has in fact stayed the same or increased.  Meanwhile, there has been a significant decline in participation in Dressage shows by professionals (i.e.  Open riders).  While the data offers us no insights into the motives behind their choice to stay out of the show ring, it does provide some small road signs.

Open riders electing not to compete have some distinctive traits as a group:

• Lower Level Riders:  The overwhelming majority of the dropped rides are from the Beginner levels (Training, First & Second).
• Lower Scoring Riders:  There are indications that the riders leaving have also historically scored lower than those electing to stay.  At every level, Open riders who dropped out of the show ring in 2012 scored marginally (but statistically significant) lower in 2011 than their counterparts who continued to compete.  In addition, the number of low-scoring (below 55%) riders in 2011 was 68% higher for those who stopped showing in 2012 than those who didn’t.  The premise that lower scoring Open division riders have been dropping out of the show circuit seems to also be borne out by the fact that during this same period of decline in Open division participation, the average score for the group has seen a steady increase.

2013:  The Year of the Amateur?

It is still too early to make predictions about 2013, but given that the four years ending 2012 witnessed a dramatic shift in the balance between Open and Amateur divisions, it is very likely that we will see a continuation of this trend.  Given this shift, combined with the rise of grassroots lobbying efforts like the Adult Amateur Dressage Initiative as well as the historic US Dressage Championships (to include Amateurs) at the end of this year, this may indeed turn out to be the year that Adult Amateur riders take center stage.

The post Trends in US Dressage – Part 3 appeared first on Keeping Scores.

In the first article, Trends in US Dressage – Part 1, we reviewed the overall downward trend of Dressage Activity in the United States since 2007.  In this second blog post of the series, we look at a more detailed breakdown of that downward trend.  For the purposes of this analysis, I have excluded Junior /Young Riders, so the group below includes only Adult Amateur and Open riders.

Segmenting the Downward Trend

In the measurement of voluntary participation in any activity, there will be a natural ebb and flow of that participation which includes new participants, the attrition of existing participants and a steady, consistent core.  Dressage is no different.  Each year, overall activity will be made up of 3 primary groups:

• Active Riders:  These are those dedicated few who are always showing.  For the purposes of this analysis, these are riders who rode in recognized shows both the current year as well as the prior year.
• New Riders:  Each year, a new crop of riders decides to try Dressage for the first time, this is the new blood of the sport.  These are riders who, regardless of how long they may have ridden other disciplines, are riding in their first recognized Dressage show.  In some cases, this number could also include riders who have been inactive on the show circuit for 8 or more years.
• Returning Riders:   These are riders who, while actively showing in the current year, do not have any show record for the prior Competition Year, but do have a show record prior to a year ago.

Hard Core Dressage

The # of casual Riders (those showing on and off over the years) makes up the bulk of dressage activity in the US.  It is interesting to note that, while this group (as well as the # of New Riders) has declined sharply since 2007 and the onset of the economic recession, there is a smaller but core group of “Active” riders (those who show year after year) whose participation has stayed constant over the last 7-8 years.  This Active group of Hard Core Dressage show riders has completed just under 10,000 rides a year since 2006, even while participation in the other groups dropped.

The core group of Active Riders is mostly made up of Adult Amateurs.

We will look at the ever-active topic of Adult Amateur participation in US Dressage in more detail in the next article in this series, but one interesting aspect of this Hard Core Active Dressage group is the breakdown between Amateur and Open (“professional”) riders.  From 2010 – 2012 (the years that the most reliable information related to Rider division are available), this Active Rider group was made up of an ever-increasing % of Adult Amateurs

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Dressage in a Recession

From 2003 – 2007, Dressage participation in the US grew at a rate of about 3.3% per year.  During this same time period , however, the # of dressage shows dropped.  (With the notable spike in 2007 and 2008 when the # of dressage shows was at an all time high for the time period).  This increase in participation as well as decrease in the # of shows would have combined to give the average show attendee the impression that dressage was bigger than ever (and indeed it was).

Predictably, though, as the US economy slid into the recession starting in 2007, that impact was felt in recognized dressage showing as well.  Overall, participation in Dressage (as measured by # of overall rides or classes ridden) in the US fell off sharply after 2007.  On average, this precipitous drop (over 19% overall) seems to have ended its downward slide around 2011.  Meanwhile the just-completed 2012 season saw a overall increase and (potentially?) the beginnings of a recovery.

The graphic below tells the story of the overall trends in participation and activity.

Overall Trends in US Dressage

 Fewer Riders with Fewer Rides

The overall decrease in Dressage participation since 2007 doesn’t appear to be just a simple matter of fewer riders (In Part 2 of this series we’ll take a more detailed look at who is and isn’t showing).  The decrease in the # of shows and total # of rides was also accompanied by a decrease in the average # of rides (or show classes) that a rider participated in at the shows.  While the decrease is relatively slight, it does represent a consistent change in the showing behavior of dressage riders, moving from an average of close to 3 (2.8) towards an average that is closer to 2 (2.4).  It is interesting to note the drop in average # of riders in the 2008 show season, but we think this is most likely due to the sharp uptick in the # of recognized shows available during that Olympic year.

10-year declining trend in the # of Rides per Show for the average rider.

Regional Differences

The overall decline was 19% but that is for all regions of the country.  If we look at just Region 3, we see the same continued 3% annual growth continuing unabated.  It would seem that Dressage riders in the Southeast – and presumably mostly centered in West Palm  & Wellington, Florida – appear to be impervious to the economic downturn impacting the rest of the country.  In fact, if you remove the positive effect and volume from Region 3, you see that the downward trend in dressage participation is MUCH worse in the rest of the country.  Regions 4 and 7 were the hardest hit during this decline, showing an overall drop in participation since 2007 of close to 30%.

Region 3 continues to Grow, the other regions… not so much.

Breed Classes:  the Rise of the Arabians

One interesting thing to note.  While the above does not reflect Breed-specific shows and classes, there were some interesting trends there.  Beginning in 2009, there was a significant and distinct uptick in the # of Breed-Restricted classes and Breed shows with USEF/USDF recognized classes.    From 2009 – 2012 there were roughly 4x the # of Breed-Specific Tests and 2x the # of shows offering Breed-specific classes (most of these were Breed Specific shows) when compared to a similar time period prior to 2009.  In addition, approximately 65% of this volume could be attributed to Arabian (Arabian, Half-Arabian, Arab-Cross) breed classes.  In second place (carrying approximately 5% of the breed specific volume) were Morgan classes.  The remainder were distributed throughout a number of different breeds (including traditional warmbloods such as Oldenburgh and KWPN classes, etc.).  If any reader has an opinion or is aware of a change in USEF or USDF policy that would have caused this spike, please let us know your thoughts.

Dressage Recovery:  Too Soon to Tell

Although 2012 showed a very modest increase (of just 361 more rides) over the 10-year low-point of 2011, it is interesting to note that Region 3 (which has shown growth in participation for 8 of the last 10 years and posted a record jump in total # of rides from 2010 to 2011, experienced a decline as well from 2011 to 2012.  Meanwhile, both Region 7 and 9 showed growth.

The activity for the 2013 Show Season is promising – although show activity from October – January is typically skewed towards the die-hard winter warriors – though it is still too early to tell if we are at the beginning of a second resurgence of what was once called the fastest growing equestrian sport.  But, for now, it looks like we may be turning corner.

Look out for the next post in this series on Trends in US Dressage:  2003 – 2012 where we will break down the trends further.

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The post Trends in US Dressage – Part 1 appeared first on Keeping Scores.

Its been a little while since we’ve announced new content or features on CenterlineScores.com, but today we are announcing two new changes:

Year End & All Breeds Awards

Beginning today, both Year End and All Breeds Award Placings (up to 20th place) will be displayed on Horse and Rider profiles in the “Recent Achievements” section.  In addition, we have modified the display so that it groups Achievements/Awards by year (making the list a good bit easier to read in the process).

For these new awards, we currently only have data available for the 2012 and 2011 Competition Years so prior to then, we won’t display any Year End or All Breeds award placings.

Display Advertising

As most regular users know, CenterlineScores.com has not run ads on the site in nearly a year.  We were concerned because the layout forced by the Google-based advertising was not in keeping with the aesthetic of the site and was often obtrusive (both to the eye and in the content presented by Google’s ad engine).

Since that time, we have reworked the layout so that the ads are as seamlessly integrated as possible.  In addition, we have opted to only accept advertising from and for companies and products that we believe in, use or do business with.  So, we are proud to announce our first 3 advertisers for the site:

• HorseShow.com:  We are super excited to feature HorseShow.com as our banner advertiser.  Our friends there (especially Chief Operating Officer Gil Merrick) have been supportive and have encouraged our efforts here from the very beginning.  HorseShow.com continues to push the boundaries of both technology and Equestrian Sport with their online coaching and showing platform.
• Lisa Seger Insurance:  Lisa Seger and her associates are partnered with equine insurance industry leader the Markel Company and offer a vast array of coverages: equine mortality, major medical, private horse owner liability, trainer liability, farm and ranch and many others that can be tailored to meet your specific needs. My wife and I have both of our horses insured through Lisa with Markel and can testify first-hand to their superior quality of service for their clients.  Look for Lisa and her folks at the shows and in the barns.  You can visit with them online or via phone.  CenterlineScores.com is proud to recommend them as your horse, farm and ranch insurance resource.
• Ron Smeets Dressage Horses: Based in Netherlands near Maastricht and within driving distance from Aachen, Germany, Ron’s farm is easily accessible from both Amsterdam and Düsseldorf airports.  My wife has trained (both here in the states as well as in Holland) with Ron for the last 3 years and we located, bought and imported our Dutch Warmblood gelding, Zidane, through him.  Ron teaches clinics throughout Europe and regularly conducts clinics for his students in Georgia and Florida.  In addition, he is now available for coaching sessions through HorseShow.com’s innovative new Online Coaching platform and at this time is the only Dutch trainer on the platform.

We hope you enjoy the new features.  Look for more from us over the next few months and please remember to support our sponsors!

The post What’s New on CenterlineScores.com? appeared first on Keeping Scores.

Results from the recent Region 9 Championships hosted by the Houston Dressage Society November 1-4, 2012 at the Great Southwest Equestrian Center in Katy, TX are now available on CenterlineScores.com.  Placings have been added to all Horse and Rider profiles.

In addition, placings for the South West Dressage Championships have also been added to Horse and Rider profiles.

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The 45th Annual California Dressage Society Championship Results (for Competition Year 2012) have been posted to CenterlineScores.com.  These Championship placings have been added to all Horse and Rider Profiles.

Congratulations also to CDS for 45 years of promoting dressage in California and nationwide!

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Dressage is big in California. California is big on CenterlineScores.com. Visitors from the most populous US State account for roughly 15% of all visits to our site, that’s 2x as much as the next closest state. Last year, we announced that we were adding California Dressage Society Championship “Achievements” to both Rider and Horse profiles.  This year, in addition to CDS, NCDCTA, SWDC & RMDS we are happy to announce that we will be adding Championship placings from the 2012 DASC Championships (held last weekend at the Hansen Dam Equestrian Center).  These have been added to the “Achievements” section on the Rider/Horse profile pages.  In addition, we went back and grabbed all of the placings from last year’s championship show as well.  Congratulations to all and congratulations to DASC for a fantastic championship show.

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Here at CenterlineScores.com we’ve taken that data and squished it into a graphic to show the relative values of all of the individual score components (Walk, Trot, Canter, etc.) for each of the competitors in the Young Horse Classes.  You can see illustrated below, the partial results from the 4-Year Old Young Horse Championships:

The final total score (which you can find everywhere on the web) is on the right.  In addition though, you can also see the scores for each component (for the 5-year old and 6-year old results, these will be weighted 40% for the Preliminary and 60% for the Finale tests).  So, for example, you can see that Ashley and Don Frederic from High Valley Hanoverians scored a 7.9 on the Trot, an 8.2 on the Walk, etc.  The center of the bar graphic represents the average for that test component for all competitors in the class.  A green bar indicates that the pair scored above the average and a blue bar indicates that the pair scored below the average for the class.

One thing that is extremely interesting to note for the Young Horse classes is that the Judge’s collective opinion on General Impression almost perfectly ranks with the overall final score.  Anecdotally, this means that if we had asked this judge panel to score the classes based on the General Impression score alone, the final outcome (in most cases) would have changed very little.  This would seem to indicate that the judges are integrating all of the individual components fairly accurately into the General Impression score.

In addition, as always, every horse and rider is linked to their online profile page on CenterlineScores.com.  Let us know what you think about the Young Horse / Developing Horse results in the comments below.

Links for Young Horse / Developing Horse Results on CenterlineScores.com:

• Summary Results for 2012 Young Horse and 2012 Developing Horse Championships
• Scoring Component Details for 4-Year Old Young Horse
• Scoring Component Details for 5-Year Old Young Horse
• Scoring Component Details for 6-Year Old Young Horse

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But let’s be honest here…

Isn’t it mildly annoying that NBC and the rest of the press are acting as if Rafalca was the first American dressage horse to ever go to the Olympics? Regardless of your political affiliation (and we can all conjecture which direction most of the dressage world leans), the Rafalca mania sweeping the press just seems wrong, especially given that there’s so much amazing talent on the team besides Jan and Rafalca.

2012 US Dressage Team: Jan Ebeling, rider of RAFALCA, America’s Horse is on the left. Oh and there’s these other riders who are also pretty good too. What?!

I understand why all the fuss and do appreciate the exposure and discussion, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it.

So… I guess we should just enjoy the moment in the sun that America’s Horse has given dressage. As for me, I’m more excited to see how “the rest of the team” does tomorrow.

The post Rafalca, America’s Horse?? appeared first on Keeping Scores.

Current Search Functionality:  

• You have always been able to search by a horse’s USDF #, so if I want to find Ravel as ridden by Steffen Peters, I can search for 1056532 and find Ravel, owned by Akiko Yamazaki and ridden by Steffen.

 

 

 

• In addition, every horse can also be searched for not only by name but also by breed and owner’s name.  So if I wanted to find all Dutch Warmbloods named Anthem I can type in “Anthem Dutch”.  Or if I wanted to find all Hanoverians named “Beemer” I can search for “Beemer Hanoverian”.  If I know the owner’s last name, I can use that to narrow the search, so, again, searching for Ravel #1056532, I can just type in “Ravel Yamazaki” and I get the same result.

But there was a problem.  

A few of our users noticed a problem with the way the results were displayed in the drop-down list of the search though.  There were some cases where horses of the same breed and name were being merged in the search results displayed and when clicked only one would be displayed (typically the one with the lower USDF #).  We’ve fixed that.

New Search Functionality Added:

This usability issue has been corrected with the following display changes:

• For all horses, we now display the horse’s highest level attained.  So for Ravel, for example, you will now see “Ravel (Dutch Warmblood – Grand Prix)”.
• If there is more than one horse with the same name and the same level, you will also see that horse’s USDF # displayed. As an example, the most common horse name over the last 15 years has been “Romeo” (or some variation).  If you do a search for Romeo you can see tons of different horses.  If I do a search for “Romeo Dutch” I see that I still have multiple results at each level, but they are differentiated by the actual horse #.

We think that the new results will help surface those horses that were being “hidden” by the old search results display.  Also, the additional information will help enhance the search results for all other horses being searched.

As always, thanks for visiting and using the site and please remember to”Like” us on Facebook.

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It’s been almost a year (11 months) since CenterlineScores.com launched.   During that time, the website and this blog have had over 212,629 visits (and over 1.5 million page views) from over 98,000+ unique visitors.

We’ve had visitors from all over the country and all over the world (in fact, every country in the world with the exception of some of the middle and west African countries and one country in South America).  Not surprisingly, California leads all other states in traffic/usage of the site (with over 17% of those 212,000 visits), followed by Florida, Texas, New York, Georgia, Illinois, North Carolina, Washington, Massachusetts & Virginia.

Over the next few weeks, leading up to the anniversary of the new launch, we’ll be posting some new analyses and reporting on the State of US Dressage.  We expect to be adding many new features this year.  The first small one that we’re unveiling today allows riders to see their progress toward earning their USDF medals.

USDF Bronze, Silver and Gold medals are an achievement that many riders dream of and strive towards.  For riders who have earned a qualifying score towards any of their medals, that progress will be shown under the “Medals” section of the rider profile.

It’s been an amazing year for CenterlineScores.com and the final jury is still out, but based on the feedback we’ve been hearing, the site (and more specifically the way our visitors have used it) has fundamentally and significantly changed the way that United States Dressage riders, horses and trainers are researched.  Don’t take my word for it.

Here’s a very small sampling of emails and feedback we’ve gotten over the last year:

Hi, I love your new site its very helpful! - Krista S.
	Great website!   It’s incredible how quick and easy it now is to get information now. - Risa B.
You have created an absolutely WONDERFUL resource!  Thank you VERY VERY much!!  - Leslie R.
	I just stumbled across your website and all I can say is WOW!!! I’ve been trying to go back and record all my scores just so I can have a nice, tidy way of keeping my progress, and your site is AMAZING!! It’s so easy to use and so organized!! I spent at least half an hour looking up records not just for myself, but friends, trainers, etc.! Keep up the awesome work and thanks for such a USEFUL site!! - Lauren E.
I LOVE THIS!  It’s going to keep the dressage community more honest!! … Something that has bugged me for YEARS!! THANKS!! This is so cool!! - Cheryl Q.
	I Love that you have created a score check website, it is honestly the coolest thing i have seen in years!! - Danielle C.
OK, i give you a score of……..SUPER.  Thanks so much for doing all this work – it’s a lot of fun and very useful to scan the data. – Freda S.
	LOVE this site!!  Thank you.  Keeps folks much more honest in representing themselves and horses for sale!- Rachael N.

So, a huge thank you to the thousands who have helped make the site so successful!  Keep us posted on how things are working and send in your suggestions for how we can improve or make things better.

Sincerely,

Jay L. Stevens
jay@centerlinescores.com

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